Resurrecting this.
Any more opinions?
Based on the stories I've been reading, it seems like a coin-flip. He "could" have murdered her. But, it also "could" have been mistaken identity.
One witness testified that they heard a woman scream before the shots. Then, another (think it was an expert?) testified that Pistorius screams like a girl. A security guard testified that, on the phone after the incident, Pistorius told him "Everything is fine". But, defense said that Pistorius said, "I'm fine". Expert for the prosecution showed that Pistorius was probably on his stumps when he bashed the door with the bat, contradicting his testimony that he put his legs on before bashing the door. Then, defense asked him if the damage "could" have been caused by him swinging the bat with his legs on, and he said it could have.
Given what I've heard about his conduct immediately afterwards, I'm leaning towards mistaken identity. Perhaps not an "acquittal", as he has somewhat of a record with being cavalier with firearms, and could be shown to not have taken proper precautions. But, that'd be manslaughter or something else - not murder.