Artificial Libertarian Island

[foadi]

what do you propose ppl do about it? cutting the human population wont mean hungry ppl get more food. they dont have food now because of war, poverty, mismanagement, etc.

i find it interesting that you think you're on the side of science here. guys like ehrlich are the laughing stock of the scientific community. you guys are even crazier than global warming denialists.

[The Dharma Bum]

I just cited a UN report that gave a range of estimates from various sources. The median carrying capacity is estimated at 10 billion. Less if you consider resource depletion and increased consumption, which is happening very rapidly.

When China and India hit US style consumption levels it's really going to have a profound effect.

However, the only way to undo the biggest mistake in human history is to commit the greatest crime in history.

I will concede the issue on that grounds. It's probably better to let nature takes its course anyway.

[eric]

I just don't think that China and India are going to hit US consumption levels, particularly the same type of consumption.

[Spider]

[The Dharma Bum]

Well...The number of middle class asians will equal the number of middle class westerners by 2015. There will be 2 billion middle class asians by 2021.

By contrast in the US the financialization of the economy that has occurred since the Nixon era unlocked a rapid expansion of consumer credit and made saving unnecessary. When times were good people could tap into their household wealth to buy consumer goods. However since the meltdown US consumption, which was driven by this credit expansion, has dropped as Americans begin to try to rebuild the wealth that was lost and begin to save again.

So, that's a pipe dream. They are going to pass the shit out of anything we ever did, in regards to consumption rates.

[Spider]

We're talking per capita. In absolute terms there's no question. There's X times more of them.

[The Dharma Bum]

The metric "middle class" is equivalent regardless of location.

[Spider]

In a relative sense, sure. However, in terms of global carrying capacity, absolute figures are the issue, not what billions of people consume as opposed to millions.

[eric]

They may have higher consumption rates, but what I mean is that they won't have the same time of consumption. For instance, they will just never ever consume homes, or SUVs or things like that, like Americans have. It just won't ever happen on that large of a scale. There isn't enough room, not enough infrastructure, not enough materials, etc... so those items will just be prohibitively expensive for the Chinese or Indian middle class.

Also, consider that while a Chinese or Indian middle class may rise, also what is currently middle class European or American may just be rich in terms of the global scale.

[Kane]

Meh, Greiff just did a piece on wages and found that declines had already begun in China and India in the 80's. On a per capita basis it would seem consumers as a whole are seeing less of the pie regardless of nationality.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-1 ... nged-.html

It's interesting.