Looking back through the billboard charts it's pretty clear that many of the most popular songs will not become classics. Most of the Hot 100 from 5 years back are no longer popular, many are very unpopular. Similarly, The 60s and 70s stations on SiriusXM radio is full of one hit wonders and popular music that has aged very poorly. For every Velvet Underground and Frank Zappa, you get a Glen Campbell and The Carpenters. Artists that were too easy to "get" seem to become dated.
Classic artists tend to have more than one good album and achieve at least some mainstream success. They're also pretty talented musicians usually, not some pretty face the label taught a couple chords. Classic music isn't stuck in a certain year or decade. A lot of hippy music is unlistenable these days because the government stopped lacing the drinking water with LSD for research. They probably aren't your favorite artists but they're at least respectable.
Here are my predictions:
Radiohead - Kid A, Amnesiac, Hail to The Thief, and In Rainbows. Pretty much guaranteed to become classic. With the exception of Pablo Honey (1993), they've released nothing but good albums. I'll be very disappointed if Radiohead isn't our Beatles.
Tool - Lateralus, 10,000 Days. Half of their best albums were released in the 1990s, but they still qualify. Lateralus (and Aenima) is a top metal album but still had a lot of mainstream appeal. They exist outside of space and time. I'm not really a fan of Opeth, but they'll probably become classic too.
Arcade Fire - Funeral, Neon Bible, and The Suburbs were all great albums. They've received a lot of mainstream attention between all the radio plays and Grammies, but I don't think they ever became overexposed. Each of their albums has had its own unique sound.
The Roots - Game Theory, How I Got Over, undun. The bulk of their best work came in the 1990s, but they've been consistently good in the new millennium as well. For whatever reason, a great deal of hip hop ages poorly, but The Roots always sound good. Maybe it's the instrumentation. They're Jimmy Fallon's house band, but somehow they've managed to avoid selling out.
Animal Collective - Sung Tongs, Feels, Strawberry Jam, and Merriweather Post Pavilion. Their last album sucked, but they had a pretty solid run of quality records before it. Achieved some degree of commercial success, but never really became mainstream. Psychedelic, folky, poppy, electronic, always interesting.
The Black Keys - Thickfreakness, Rubber Factory, Brothers, El Camino. I didn't think any of their albums were amazing, but they've been consistently good. They've got mainstream appeal and a recognizable sound. Besides The White Stripes (another classic band IMO), there isn't anyone doing blues rock these days.
Kanye West - The College Dropout, Late Registration, My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy. He has made some great albums, but he is definitely way overexposed. I wonder if he'll be able to f**k up his own legacy. Anyways, those three albums were great. His new one is Meh, but MBDTF is an outstanding album that makes up for it. He seemed to have a better perspective on things back then.
Other likely future classic musicians: The National, Electric Wizard, Wilco, Bon Iver, Agalloch, Sufjan Stevens, Jay Z, Fleet Foxes, Sigur Ros, and Queens of the Stone Age. Not many female artists in my list: Regina Spektor maybe? Most of my favorites are from the 1990s. Joanna Newsom, if so many people didn't have a problem with her voice (which is lovely) would be a candidate; she is perhaps the best modern songwriter. MF DOOM and all his alter egos really deserve to be a classic, but I'd guess that he stays relatively unknown.
Or maybe I'm wrong and all our kids listen to Mumford & Sons.
Maybe I'll do one on films later. I'm interested in seeing what you guys predict.
