Is the Chinese 'Miracle' bullshit?

[Professor]

In the 80s, Japan was going to replace the US (based on their tech and auto). In the 90s, it was India (outsourcing). Then, it was South Korea (again, tech and manufacturing). Now it's China.

Frankly, I view this as I view comparisons made in sports. They call Kobe and LeBron the "next Michael Jordan". But, so long as you are being compared with someone, you aren't as good as them. No one calls Brees or Manning the "next Dan Marino" or "next Joe Montana". Why? Because they are better (or, at least, their stats are better - don't want to get into the whole "game has changed" thing).

I see no real reasons to believe that China will still be the powerhouse in 30 years it is now, unless radical transformation happens.

[The Dharma Bum]

China will simply join the other core industrial nations if they become more developed. National boundaries aren't nearly as important as they were and by 2050-2100 I think the nation/state as an autonomous political structure will probably be gone or at most a ceremonial remnant.

National entities simply cause too much trouble and make it too easy to exploit wage disparities to be allowed by a reasonable world.

[Professor]

[gla22]

You guys are f**k nuts. China has lifted literally half a billion people out of poverty in just 25 years. The fact that they even have cities on par with first world cities is franky astounding. They have a billion people, they don't need to be and obviously aren't anywhere near us on a per capita basis in order to be ahead on the aggregate. It's pretty well known and understood china will shortly surpass the USA as the worlds largest economy. I don't really care, we surpassed all of Europe in the last century and it's still pretty damn good to be a European. I would actually argue we are fortunate to be living in a mature economy with basic rights, a social safety net, and a more comprehensive approach to happiness. China in the next century will be like america was in the last, a nation full of overworked, over stressed strivers struggling to reconcile traditional values with a rapidly modernizing economy.

They are going to overtake us shortly, as they should quite frankly. There are more of them and they bust ass to avoid grinding poverty. They can keep the GDP crown, I'd rather have healthcare and a few more vacation days.

[Professor]

Good points, Saz.

I don't really care about the "biggest GDP crown" either. All things considered, I'd rather be right where I am than anywhere else.

OK, so I'd rather be an Italian multi-bazillionaire, driving a Lambo around Milan, going for 5-month cruises on the Mediterranean in my 100-ft yacht, and having people know my name in every port of call. But, being rich pretty much anywhere kicks the ass out of being mediocre in the best country.

[Leviathan]

It sounds bad to Americans because the implicit assumption is that a loss in the status as world larger economy will inevitably result in losing the status of worlds best military. We won two world wars and became a world power by outproducing everyone. A china that is the worlds largest economy and has a billon people could very well do that to us. We all know aggregate GDP doesn't matter one bit for our daily lives, given out envy of the Swiss.

I think these concerns are overblown for the reason dharma mentioned. While it has been said countless times in the past, I think we have reached a point where military might just doesn't account for very much anymore because of how economically and personally interconnected we are. I'm a pretty average citizen and I have good business relationships and good personal friendships with plenty of Chinese people. I would bet most of you do too. The middle and upper classes in developed economies are growing increasingly homogenous, and china is no different. In the long run Marx will be right, and the distinction between people will be more along class lines than nationalism. The Chinese peasant who just got his home bulldozed has more in common with Katrina refugees than with the elite in Shanghai or Beijing.

It's ultimately a plus for us. I genuinely believe in that trade liberalization is a rising tide that lifts all boats. At the end of the day Chinese work and innovation will benefit our lives, just as American innovations like the Internet benefitted the Europeans who we surpassed decades ago. We have more trading partners, we have more markets, and we have more people being included in the "developed" world who have similar cultures and tastes. That's a benefit for everyone, and frankly the Chinese miracle is one of the best events in global history. In the same way that America changed the world when we surpassed Europe, China will change the world when they surpass us. Ultimately it's for the best and I think it's a mistake to assume that the rise of china somehow will harm average American citizens.

[eynon81]

(shrug)

really all we can do it speculate because nobody...NOBODY...is doing honest reporting about China (to be fair its increasing hard to find honest reporting about North America too).

I've literally seen how fast many parts of that country are developing. The Shanghai I saw in 2008 was decades ahead of the Shanghai I visited in 2002. So real and incredible progress is being made.

However a lot of people are being left behind.

[eynon81]

[eynon81]

Yeah it won't be long until were a global community of elites a plebs.

[Medius]