by Spider » Fri Feb 28, 2014 11:51 pm
Ukraine really is not as trivial as its being made out to be. Don't forget...Putin's long terms ambitions are the establishment of the Eurasian Union. Ukraine, being one of the world's great breadbasket countries, is essential to that. In fact is pretty much the keystone of the the legitimacy of the whole thing when it comes to expansion. Otherwise all Tsar Vladimir has to play with are countries that really are useless, like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus. Trying to muscle Ukraine into this thing would be a gigantic coup. And considering the fact that Georgia, even having been on the receiving end of Imperial---er, sorry, Soviet....er sorry, Russian strategic bombers, is considering playing ball with them...I doubt the Tsar feels strongly motivated to pull punches.
When it comes to long term strategic planning, the virtual reestablishment of the USSR is not to be understated. The US and EU have very good reasons to try to stifle this thing. The problem is they just won't have the stones to do it unless there is an actual shooting war on the table. And even that might tip it further into Putin's camp.