Let's say you were involved in a game where you currently have 99% chance of winning $1000.
a) You were given a chance to pay to pay a certain amount to raise that winning odds to 100%, how much would you pay?
b) How much would you pay to raise the odds to 99.99%?
99% chance of winning $1000
8 posts
• Page 1 of 1
99% chance of winning $1000
by Stratego » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:26 am
Sigmund Freud defined four parts of a psyche; the id, the ego, the superego and the stratego. The Stratego being the highest form of morality and scientific thinking.
If guns are not outlawed, the in-laws will have guns.
If guns are not outlawed, the in-laws will have guns.
-
Stratego - VIP
- Posts: 3308
- Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:27 pm
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 11 times
- Been thanked: 573 times
Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by spacemonkey » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:32 am
37 cents.
The hardest part of doing nothing is knowing when your done.
- spacemonkey
- Governor
- Posts: 5718
- Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:54 am
- Location: cyberspace
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 73 times
- Been thanked: 296 times
-
Winchester - Governor
- Posts: 5872
- Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:07 pm
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 822 times
- Been thanked: 853 times
Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by Stratego » Thu Oct 29, 2015 12:07 pm
Sigmund Freud defined four parts of a psyche; the id, the ego, the superego and the stratego. The Stratego being the highest form of morality and scientific thinking.
If guns are not outlawed, the in-laws will have guns.
If guns are not outlawed, the in-laws will have guns.
-
Stratego - VIP
- Posts: 3308
- Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:27 pm
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 11 times
- Been thanked: 573 times
Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by Winchester » Thu Oct 29, 2015 1:02 pm
-
Winchester - Governor
- Posts: 5872
- Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:07 pm
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 822 times
- Been thanked: 853 times
Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by Saz » Thu Oct 29, 2015 1:35 pm
20 for 100% chance 10 for 99.9
RISK AVERSE
RISK AVERSE
DON'T BE A TOUGH GUY. DON'T BE A FOOL! I WILL CALL YOU LATER.
-
Saz - Vice President
- Posts: 10171
- Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:37 am
- Location: CANADA
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 1189 times
- Been thanked: 1028 times
- Political Leaning: Democratic Socialist
Re: 99% chance of winning $1000
by Dylan » Thu Oct 29, 2015 1:49 pm
I probably would too Saz, likely more. EV is cool and all but at the margins of likelihood itss utility decreases.
E.g., the EV for a lottery ticket is usually above the cost. But it's still a low value proposition obviously.
E.g., the EV for a lottery ticket is usually above the cost. But it's still a low value proposition obviously.
-
Dylan - Vice President
- Posts: 10741
- Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:34 pm
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 1038 times
- Been thanked: 916 times
- Political Leaning: Middle of the Road
8 posts
• Page 1 of 1
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 38 guests