Iowa Caucus Predictions
Re: Iowa Caucus Predictions
by Spider » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:06 pm
Just wow. Cruz actually winning...Clinton and Sanders neck and neck...just wow.
-
Spider - VIP
- Posts: 12847
- Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:38 pm
- Location: Out in the sticks.
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 932 times
- Been thanked: 1067 times
- Political Leaning: Anarcho Communist
Re: Iowa Caucus Predictions
by Dylan » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:08 pm
Cruz winning isn't that crazy. What will be really big is if Trump loses NH. He's had a very strong lead there for a while. If he doesn't get 1st in NH he's done.
-
Dylan - Vice President
- Posts: 10741
- Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:34 pm
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 1038 times
- Been thanked: 916 times
- Political Leaning: Middle of the Road
-
Spider - VIP
- Posts: 12847
- Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:38 pm
- Location: Out in the sticks.
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 932 times
- Been thanked: 1067 times
- Political Leaning: Anarcho Communist
Re: Iowa Caucus Predictions
by John Galt » Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:13 am
dems don't have a vote count for their caucuses, but it is known that 6 of them were decided on a coin flip, and hillary won all 6 coin flips.
but on the republican side rubio has a strong showing. i've been saying rubio will be the nominee for a long time
the canadian will now have all the fire unloaded on him and the establishment will do everything in its power to help the one candidate they find palatable who not only broke double digits but made it to 23%. that's 1% less than trump. that's 5% less than cruz.
REMEMBER: rick santorum and mike huckabee won the last two iowa caucuses. neither of them got the nomination.
regardless, the united states really needs to reverse course on this populist bullshit. f**k primaries.
but on the republican side rubio has a strong showing. i've been saying rubio will be the nominee for a long time
the canadian will now have all the fire unloaded on him and the establishment will do everything in its power to help the one candidate they find palatable who not only broke double digits but made it to 23%. that's 1% less than trump. that's 5% less than cruz.
REMEMBER: rick santorum and mike huckabee won the last two iowa caucuses. neither of them got the nomination.
regardless, the united states really needs to reverse course on this populist bullshit. f**k primaries.
Americans learn only from catastrophe and not from experience. -- Theodore Roosevelt
My life has become a single, ongoing revelation that I haven’t been cynical enough.
My life has become a single, ongoing revelation that I haven’t been cynical enough.
-
John Galt - Technical Admin
- Posts: 14869
- Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 3:22 pm
- Location: Bowling Green Massacre Survivor
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 719 times
- Been thanked: 1497 times
- Political Leaning: Classic Liberal
Re: Iowa Caucus Predictions
by IBM » Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:23 am
Cruz can't win vs Hillary.
This result isn't shocking though. The only real shocker is Rubio doing so well. And the fact that this was the largest turnout of all time (obviously b/c of Trump), but Trump didn't win (which is a little fishy) is strange. But really Rubio is the big winner here. He is the real threat to Trump, not Cruz IMO.
Yeb was the front man, Rubio is the real man of the establishment.
This result isn't shocking though. The only real shocker is Rubio doing so well. And the fact that this was the largest turnout of all time (obviously b/c of Trump), but Trump didn't win (which is a little fishy) is strange. But really Rubio is the big winner here. He is the real threat to Trump, not Cruz IMO.
Yeb was the front man, Rubio is the real man of the establishment.
- IBM
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:13 am
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 0 time
- Been thanked: 0 time
Re: Iowa Caucus Predictions
by John Galt » Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:33 am
bit of history from the iowa cacuses.
santorum won in 2012. obama went unapposed.
huckabee won in 2008. obama won.
then you gotta go back to 1992 to find a difference. tom harkin won for the dems in 1992, and clinton got the nom coming in fourth at 2.8% (tbf, harkin was from iowa)
dick and bob won in 1988, respectively dems and reps, where the third place in both of these got the nomination
in 1980 bush won in iowa, beating reagan.
in 1976, "uncommitted" beat jimmy carter. by 10%. similarly in 1972 "uncommitted" (35.8%) beat edmund muskie (35.5%) and george mcgovern (22.6%)
santorum won in 2012. obama went unapposed.
huckabee won in 2008. obama won.
then you gotta go back to 1992 to find a difference. tom harkin won for the dems in 1992, and clinton got the nom coming in fourth at 2.8% (tbf, harkin was from iowa)
dick and bob won in 1988, respectively dems and reps, where the third place in both of these got the nomination
in 1980 bush won in iowa, beating reagan.
in 1976, "uncommitted" beat jimmy carter. by 10%. similarly in 1972 "uncommitted" (35.8%) beat edmund muskie (35.5%) and george mcgovern (22.6%)
Americans learn only from catastrophe and not from experience. -- Theodore Roosevelt
My life has become a single, ongoing revelation that I haven’t been cynical enough.
My life has become a single, ongoing revelation that I haven’t been cynical enough.
-
John Galt - Technical Admin
- Posts: 14869
- Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 3:22 pm
- Location: Bowling Green Massacre Survivor
- Gender:
- Has thanked: 719 times
- Been thanked: 1497 times
- Political Leaning: Classic Liberal
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests