Start Hedging (Trade War)

by **Kane** » Sat Dec 15, 2018 4:41 pm

China is seeing a pretty big slowdown:

Chinese data showing slowdown spook global markets https://www.ft.com/content/717636be-ff4 ... e208d3e521 via @financialtimes

This is why everything tanked on Friday.

by **Kane** » Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:35 pm

It would seem that a couple of new things are happenning:

The GOP is increasingly losing its mind

Grassley: Trump should leave NAFTA if Dems block new trade deal
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4246 ... trade-deal

And Trump actually has no balls

Trump wants deal with Chinese because "stock market"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ock-market

by **ToddStarnes** » Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:53 pm

by **Kane** » Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:36 pm

Requires a united front and Trump has all but destroyed that.

by **ToddStarnes** » Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:52 am

by **Kane** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:02 pm

lol

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1PO2ZC

Just as Trump flails around about the wall he's now being cut at the knees on tariffs. Looks like the GOP is seriously losing patience.

by **Kane** » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:42 pm

Perhaps Trump's lasting legacy will be to have caused our traditional allies to doubt our proclamations and intentions about our foes because everything we have done under this administration has been at their expense.

Britain and Germany are now openly rebuking Trump and the US on security concerns related to Huawei:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-rebuke- ... 1550577810
https://www.ft.com/content/619f9df4-32c ... 2a211d90d5

And here's two great stories on a recent visit to Europe made by our benevolent VP Mike Pence:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/18/opin ... unich.html

https://www.vox.com/2019/2/18/18229268/ ... ump-allies

If we are not actively pursuing an isolationist foreign policy the consequences of our current strategy may be just that.

by **Kane** » Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:30 pm

2018 Q4 and 2019 Q1 will be underwhelming due to continuing trade negotiations and tariffs, the shutdown, and the average decline in tax returns. Q1 2019 will not compare to Q1 2018 (2.2% GDP). But I think Q2 will be pretty great. Predicting market gyrations as people react to lagging data.

by **Kane** » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:29 pm

Well, this is interesting:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/drop-huawe ... _lead_pos2

Really has me wondering if this is actually due to security concerns or if Trump is acting as the mouthpiece for US Telecoms. I imagine this might be what's driving the split decisions on this and more.

by **John Galt** » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:34 pm

It's not just Trump

ANZUS together has all banned Huawei, and UK and Canada are expected to follow suit. I think those tiny chips and other security risks from other Chinese manufacturers have rattled the west who is finally realizing they can't outsource this without being put in severe danger

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