What will Obama do the next 4 years?

[Boris Johnson]

[The Dude]

[Boris Johnson]

[OGPhilly]

You don't need Nate Silver's statistical models to predict that franz will get mad again and again and again.

[Boris Johnson]

I'm fallible and I stand by my methodological criticisms, nothing about any of this changes that not displaying margins of error in the data he presented is sketch. I'm also on record a bunch of times presenting my position for exactly what it was. Do you actually understand it? Meh.... who knows. You're looking more and more like a partisan h' word with every post. Also lame goading is lame.

Yeah I thought it was closer than it was, admit I'm wrong on that. I have the balls to do it, honestly given the available evidence, srsly doubt you'd do the same.

So mad phil phil? hmm..Not mad. Not at all. Didn't want Romney to win. So happy with that. Bit hungover though. Gawd damn it, miller is sugary pish.

So yeah... subtle criticisms of polling methods and the nature of social science. Probs going to get swept under the carpet in the face of grandstanding. I can live with that. Eventually a black swan will turn up, they always do. Last one with this sort of hubristic thinking involved the interlinked nature of the commodity markets. Several things that are novel and interesting e.g. the fact that Latino's now might actually be in the ascendency are interesting me far more, everyone seems to be treating them like a homogenous block. That could get interesting.

[OGPhilly]

No one is treating hispanics like a homogeneous voting bloc. Bush got a good split for hispanic votes in 04, and the discussion has been how the GOP has slammed the door shut on furthering that trend with all their psycho babble and immigrant hate.

[Boris Johnson]

Well I could be wrong on that as well, still sifting through the data and the pundits opinion. When I clocked off last night, that appeared to be the narrative floating around, about how now with X latinos here and X there, you now had to do nothing but campaign to latino's. That essentially the latino vote was split by liberalish immigration issues on the one hand and the whole conservatish 'well they do love the baby jebus and their momz' on the other. Things are of course rarely that simple. Though again when I tuned off, about 4.30 am gmt, pundits were still screaming over the west coast being in play and Ohio was still only slightly probably obama and Mittens T Mormon could still have won Florida and looked to be fine in VA.

This time, I think there will be an interesting split in the vote. Far as I can tell no one is producing data on it yet. Though this latino 'what if' machine is fun to play with. http://www.latinovotemap.org/map/
SET FAMILY VALUES TO MAXIMUM!

The question i'm really interested in however, is what percentage of total voters were latino/hispanic whatever last night.

Overall, thats the real part of the election thats grabbing my attention (followed by the gay's winning and the pots). Espeically given all that anti-immigration noise over the past few years that danced dangerously close to basically latino = bad.

[OGPhilly]

Well in the broader context, latins are largely socially conservative and have issues with the gop immigration craziness, but only the true tards fail to comprehend that there are lots of differences as well. I mean Cubans and Mexicans might as well not even be discussed together.

[Boris Johnson]

Well then you have to bring in the whole recent issues with the catholic church, and how long the catholic on the street is really going to put up with there bullshit. At this point if your what if machine is not water cooled, it's like to overheat and explode.

Again still tearing through the data, but as i've said big things out of this election that are actually interesting.

1) Latino's might be the most important minority in the u.s. Hell the whole 'not hispanic' bit of the census was starting to show that this was getting to the 'wtf' moment. I think its there. You'd be mad to start out a political career now on a strict anti-immigration stance. That one has been lost, the politically conscious latino is now in the ascendancy.
2) Who whole 'anti gay' thing, thats done. Gays are mainstream now, deal. I await an epic battle in the supreme court.
3) Federal drug law is going to start being on the backfoot.

[OGPhilly]

Agree with those 3 points. Very good election and prospects for progressivism in the coming years.